Wait Lists and Capture the Flag
It’s tough to be on a college wait list. After much time and effort on the applicant and the college’s part over a six-month period, it comes down to “Well, we don’t know yet, maybe…” and that is a bummer for everyone.
I don’t like the fact that wait lists have become a necessary part of the college-going culture, but it was inevitable given how the process has morphed into something much larger than just finding a good fit and going there to college. The process has morphed into a twisted “capture the flag” game in which the object is to capture more of the “desired” flags than your competitive peers.
Students are encouraged to apply to multiple colleges (and the numbers who do and the numbers to which they apply are growing). What this means is that many students get multiple offers of admission (the flags) and THEN decide where to attend.
While this game is going on in households across America, colleges are creating ways to defend themselves against the whimsical nature of this game. They run mathematical models to estimate how many students who hold their particular flags are going to wave them on their campus come fall. Uncertainty about enrollment projections result in the creation of more elaborate mathematical models, and uncertainty about the result of those models causes colleges to simply hedge their bets and create a wait list. Doing so allows colleges to count flags after the May 1 deposit deadline, and if their mathematical model was off, to hand out more flags.
Wait lists aren’t all bad, they just feel that way. There is joy in the household when the MOST desired flag finally arrives. There is joy on the campus when the college fills all of its available spots. But, there are households in which the MOST desired flag never arrives and the disappointment can be palatable.
What are students to do while waiting for their favorite flags? Well, you must act as if you already know that it’s not going to arrive. First, never miss a deadline for paying a deposit at your second-choice college. Second, you need an attitude shift toward that second-choice college. Start by listing all the reasons you applied to that college in the first place and all of the good feelings you’ve had about it from time to time during the application process. See yourself there. Get used to the idea of attending that college and not the one you most desired. This is much healthier than wallowing in self pity. If the flag arrives, hooray and congratulations! If it doesn’t, you will already have moved on anyway.
Wait lists have even become necessary to universities who have never before thought they needed them because student behavior was so predictable. UT Austin has a wait list for the first time in its history because student behavior is no longer a dependable variable in our attempt to predict freshman enrollments. There are only 250 students on the wait list for a freshman class of 7,200, and, because this is our first year with a wait list, we really don’t know how many, if any, additional flags we will give out. My guess is that we will give out some, but if the yield rate stabilizes, we are not likely to give out very many.
We are just as eager as the students on our wait list to see how well this works out for all parties involved. All we can do now is…well…wait.
Bruce Walker is Vice Provost and Director of Admissions at The University of Texas at Austin. He has worked in college admissions for 35 years. During that time, Dr. Walker has served three universities and spent eight years with The College Board. He has been Director of Admissions at UT Austin since 1996.
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Dr. Walker,
I note where there are NO responses to this blog. As a parent of a wait listed student…we are trying to do all that you advised above…but it truly boils down to a “second choice”. The process is frustrating at best, maddening at worst. In an effort to convey our feelings, I wrote the following to the President of the University a few weeks ago. We don’t want to come across as trying to ‘negotiate’ or lobby on our son’s behalf…. but I thought it important to convey some feelings from the other side of the equation. Since I sent this, our son has been honored as one of the TOP TEN high school photography students in the state, by the Texas Assoc. of High School Photography Teachers, but alas, the admissions office won’t consider new info. He dearly wants to go to UT, and has for years…now we are caught in the 10% issue. I guess we will just have to wait and see. Here is what I wrote a few weeks ago:
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We write this letter to you as parents of a wait-listed student for Fall 2009 freshman admission. Please accept this communication for its heartfelt sincerity and not as an appeal or complaint, but as parental feedback midstream in the college application / acceptance process. We realize there is risk associated with this kind of input, thus we trust you will read on with the spirit with which it is intended.
While we can debate the merits and issues surrounding the 10% admittance program that your Admissions Office has to work with, the fact is that it exists and has impacted our son in his UT admission process. Our son, Jacob is graduating Greenhill School (a private school) here in Dallas this May, and since they do not rank, he falls into the large pool of in and out of state applicants vying for the non 10% slots. Apparently he was just off the cut, and is in that small elite group of approximately 250 students who have been placed on this newly formed wait-list. Truth be told, he would rather be a part of that large elite group of already admitted students! Alternatively, he would have hopefully been offered the summer entrance route, but alas that was eliminated a few weeks ago. Finally, the CAP program remains an option, but he is like most high performing students: he is ready to get on with his college life, and does not relish the thought of a one year waiting scenario.
We mention all of this to you to help paint a picture of the emotional roller coaster that the UT process has created for a very level-headed 18 year old ( and his parents ).
1. The wait-list was newly announced, and in Jacob’s case, it was a benefit with a small curse attached. The May 15 closure date means that he must commit to perhaps a second choice by May 1, knowing that he is within 3.5% of the applicant pool from getting into UT. While many schools have wait-lists, UT is the only school we are aware of that publicizes the size of the list. Thus, the small nature of UT’s list adds to the stress.
2. The elimination of the summer program came as an additional shock. Admittedly, many schools do not, and never have had a summer admissions process. But at the time of his application, this was on the table as one possibility. Given that he is on this small wait-list, were this program to still be available, we are led to believe that summer admission would most likely have been offered to him. This is a route he would have seriously considered.
3. The local and national press is awash in college admissions statistics and discussions. Applications are way up, state and “close to home” schools are seeing a rise in interest due to affordability and economic uncertainty in many households. Even your own admissions office has indicated that the 10% application pool is larger than prior year statistics would have suggested. The interpretation we would make from this is that it would seem surprising if the ‘yield’ from offers does not totally absorb the 7200 slots, perhaps faster and more completely ( over 7200 ) than in other years. While we remain hopeful that Jacob would ultimately be offered a place in the Fall of 2009 entering class, the relevant indicators would seem to point to this not happening.
As with our son, we never like to bring up issues unless we have proposed solutions, or at least ideas to ponder. While we know that surely some of the above situations were born out of necessity, we offer the following:
1. Unless mandated by public disclosure laws, the number of students on a wait-list should remain for your eyes only. Imagine Jacob’s disappointment in not being admitted, and then to find out he was just so close. Better perhaps to be in the dark, like all other schools. Further, perhaps there is a way to entice the admitted students to send in their acceptances earlier than May 1, so that you can clear the wait-list early. Maybe they will still be admitted if they accept by May 1, but they lose their direct admit to McCombs (for instance) if they don’t accept by say April 15. This might help drive the ‘yield’ analysis up by a few weeks. We understand that most schools clear their wait-lists post May 1, but this would allow UT to take the lead in a solution to the issue of students committing to their second choice.
2. We realize budgetary and other issues make the 7200 number a hoped-for maximum, but another 250 surely won’t squeeze the system to meltdown. Thus, perhaps this small elite group of 250 should have been offered the summer option, hoping that both the summer and fall ‘yield’ would have resulted in a right-sized class. Of course this proposed reduction in summer class size would have frustrated the next tier of applicants, but the total elimination seems extreme. Alternatively, perhaps these 250 students could have been offered a Spring enrollment as a guaranteed option.
3. Perhaps this was not the best year to try out a wait-list solution? Again, we are grateful that Jacob is on it, but the published and discussed math seems to foretell a swollen pool of acceptances for UT and most schools. Again, we do not envy the yield management stress that you are under, but the wait-list offer may indeed be unnecessary false hope. Given that it is a reality for now, this is just food for thought for future years, as are the other ideas above.
Each of these issues is intricately intertwined, in ways too new and too complex for there to be a perfect solution. We know and accept this. We also trust that in the end, both our son and UT will achieve its goals in the admissions process.
Mr. Powers, please understand that we could not possibly know all of the difficult decisions that must and need to go on behind the scenes. We also readily acknowledge that this is a very strange time for all of us. The world of college admissions must be as chaotic right now as it has perhaps ever been. As parents going through this for just one student, it is tough enough. Surely it is 7200 times more difficult for you and the admissions officers! We know and respect the fine and difficult job that is underway at UT, however we feel that we would be remiss in not mentioning the “fallout” from the other side. Certainly the college process is stressful for any family, and we expected this going in; the twists and turns with UT have added an unexpected layer.
In closing, as mentioned in our opening, please accept this letter as insight from a prospective student and his parents. We hope that all of us will get through this, that Jacob gets off of the wait-list, and that UT is able to continue to develop and refine an admissions process that works as well as possible for all involved. Thank you for your time and all that you do for UT Austin!
Herb Goodman
Bachelor of Architecture – UT Austin 1978
Barbara Carr-Goodman
Bachelor of Science – UT Austin 1978
Masters of Social Work – UT Austin 1980
First let me just say, this is a very helpful blog. Its good to know that the same admissions office who I felt had “stomped on my dreams” actually has some sympathy. I was not offered the wait list option, but I did appeal. My question is in regards to if the entire wait list would have to be offered fall admission before spots were given away to students such as myself?
Katelyn, it is possible that students from both the wait list and the appeals process will be admitted. It’s also possible that someone who appeals might be admitted even if there are students on the wait list who are not; the entire wait list does not have to be exhausted before we’ll admit a student who appeals.
Herb,
I absolutely “get” where you are coming from. As a parent I understand that our children’s lives unfold in a succession of defining moments and that college admission is one of the big ones. As a Director of Admissions I live daily with the pressure that builds around the decisions that we must make, and I live through the disappointment that many of these decisions bring to families. I acknowledge that our system is not perfect and that there will never be a year in which every applicant is satisfied.
I would like to address your specific suggestion that we should have simply taken the 250 students on our wait list rather than create this almost unbearable suspense. I certainly don’t like creating suspense because the college going process is already overstuffed with it. However, we do have a capacity problem. It is more difficult than simply purchasing 250 more chairs for the classroom. For example, 250 more students means 10 more sections of freshman English, and 10 more classrooms to schedule, and at least 3-4 more faculty to hire (just to teach these 10 sections of freshman English). This does not count the additional sections we would need to fill out the students’ schedule of 5 subjects freshman year.
I am reminded of a flight I recently took from DC to Greensborough, North Carolina. They asked for 5 volunteers to get off of the flight…not because they didn’t have enough seats but because they were overweight. We flew with 5 empty seats but according to the Airlines, the flight left the gate at capacity. Just like the airlines, there are many things that go into “capacity” and the number of “seats” is just one of them.
Dr. Walker…
Thanks for your reply. Please know that I do not ENVY you or anyone involved with college admissions. King Solomon may be the only one who had a more difficult job….and you no more than he could cut the baby in half! So I respect and admire the difficulty of your situation. Hopefully the back and forth about this issue, the plans afoot in the legislature, and collective creative thinking will result in a better scenario soon for everyone involved. In the meantime, I hope Jacob gets in off the wait-list and that he will have a chance to bring as much to UT Austin as I know it could bring to him. Thanks again for your time!
hey this is a very interesting article!